Recognition of these uncertainties has at times led to the view that risk assessment is a dubious enterprise, too uncertain to be relied upon for risk-management decisions. Methods have been developed to elicit subjective descriptions of uncertainty these, however, raise the question of whose estimates to accept. Sometimes there is no reasonable method even to assign weights to the plausibility of alternative assumptions. Although such distributions are useful for describing some uncertainties, they are often not feasible in risk assessment. Not only are such risks uncertain, but often the uncertainty cannot be characterized by a probability distribution. But many risks are likely to remain uncertain indefinitely.Įstimating the magnitude of risks that cannot be measured directly frequently requires the use of assumptions that cannot be tested empirically. Research may eventually resolve many questions that now trouble us, and in some cases postponing a decision to await research results may avoid uncertainty. Despite this effort, however, and particularly when direct human evidence is not available, large uncertainties about risk remain. Substantial resources have been expended to understand these risks, and risk management has been improved by such studies. One approach to uncertainty about such risks has been to try to reduce it through research. We have been struggling with several such cases for the past decade: nuclear power, chemical carcinogens, and more recently, biotechnologies. Where experience is not a guide, risk management is more difficult. We now seek better ways to manage risks prospectively, methods that avoid the human costs of a trial-and-error approach. But trial-and-error management is ill suited for many risks of current concern-for example, risks with long latency periods or catastrophic potential. Risks were managed by learning from mistakes this is still an essential part of good risk management. The social harm from accidents and diseases such as polio was all too easy to measure. Until the last 15 years or so, efforts to improve health and safety were directed primarily at risks of relatively certain magnitude. Bertrand Russell, A History of Western Philosophy, 1945 Uncertainty, in the presence of vivid hopes and fears, is painful, but must be endured if we wish to live without the support of comforting fairy tales. Theology, on the other hand, induces a dogmatic belief that we have knowledge where in fact we have ignorance, and by doing so generates a kind of impertinent insolence towards the universe. Science tells us what we can know, but what we can know is little, and if we forget how much we cannot know we become insensitive to many things of great importance.
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